New
2 years ago-Sergey Volyna’s addressing to the world’s leaders: „ I am a Marine. “
3 years ago-Mauri Kiudsoo: On October 13, 1949, Paul Randmaa's Forest Brothers squad captured the commander of the Veriora parish extermination battalion squad.
3 years ago-Singapore company will help the Estonian Navy sink the enemy ships beyond the horizon by 2023.
3 years ago-Miro Ankerman - I propose design of a Pan-Finnic flag
3 years ago-Valdo Praust: On October 1, 1931 the Harkov Tractor Factory gave its first production.
3 years ago-On 29 August 2011 Toomas Hendrik Ilves was re-elected for the second term as President of Estonia in the Riigikogu Electoral Commission.
3 years ago-This photo is forbidden to be published in Russia.
3 years ago-Estonian Defense Industry big player ELI mortar simulator M- GOLF.
3 years ago-Untold stories of Summer 1941 by the survivors among Estonian diaspora.
3 years ago-We sent official petition to Automattic CEO Matt Mullenweg, the owner of WordPress.
Ukraine

We confirm British Ministry of Defence Russian army attack plan assessments.

Views: 919

This is article that evaluates and check the data obtained by OSINT means to which extent Russian army has amassed its battle armies to Ukraine border. One has to be reminded the Russian official resources on Twitter and propaganda heavy weights have called upon ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians and immediate offensive by Russian army to liberate the Russian speakers from the bandera Nazis. The war is inevitable and the US intelligence leaks to the press and to the world is unprecedented. People, especially English-speaking people, who have very few, if at all, experience under occupation, duress, and ethnic discrimination can’t comprehend what it is like when you experience that. For English-speaking world calling police for help is the most stressful situation they ever have experienced.

Due to the nature of this article is assessment of real Russian army battle groups deployment to the Ukraine border and the comparison with British Ministry of Defence assessment of Russian army possible advancements during the land offensive, people on the receiving end, namely Ukrainians, are people, white people, people like English-speaking world people, and Ukrainians are on the brink of nervous breakdowns and anxiety because the anticipation of something very bad without a concrete date or end on the sight is called fear. Fear is a natural phenomenon, core survival instinct.

Please understand people like Anastasiia are real people and the information SA VALDEF provides in such articles affect them directly because she and Ukrainians alike are on the receiving end. Even people who deal with raw data to produce such articles as this here have their own mental breakdown and they are far away from the threat. Imagine being the person who has even less information awareness but knows there’s a real chance to get killed, executed or deported to a Russian concentration camp.

As of Feb 21, 2022 after pre-recorded and staged National Security meeting in Kremlin the decision of declaration of war without declaring the war has been made. It has been known the decision was taken back in August 2021 or at least by December 2021 the timeline was ironed out. Everything that will follow will be live and raw. This article became an archive document even before it was published. The vents are evolving at such pace, though it was known they will take such shape.

British Ministry of Defence assessment of possible Russian land offensive.

 

On Feb 17, 2022 the UK Ministry of Defence tweeted unprecedented in history map of possible Russian army ground assault on Ukraine. The map is based on the British army assessment of possible spearhead strikes based on Russian army size, goal and tactics. The only down side of this approach, and this is up to Russian army, not the analyst at the British army, the current early spring thaw have rendered the soil soft and unable to bear heavy equipment. What will follow is unclear but that’s a factor.

Based on the footages, and there are more footages than there were 2014 / 2015 combat footages long before the war started on 22.02.2022, we analysed some of them based on the location at the time of recording and tried to see which part of the strike they are intending to cover. To reduce complexity of the task we only concentrated on a very small number of footages and the most frequent locations.

Kursk region.

All the Russian army batter groups in Kursk region are spearheading towards Kyiv. There is no other purpose of those battle groups. The ground forces will be supported by the Russian army forces that move out from Gomel, Belarus, North-East of Kyiv. This is a match with the British Ministry of Defence assessment as we have seen substantial amount of armoured and wheeled army vehicles around Gomel but we haven’t included the visuals. Also, the fact Three armies are predicted by the British MoD to move towards Kyiv from Belarus are likely to take place as shown. So far we can confirm attack from Kursk towards Kyiv and from Gomel, Belarus, towards Kyiv, by which they try to close territorial units of Ukraine army into a kettle.

No Kursk army groups will go on Kharkiv. The 3rd pincer movement by Russian army on Kharkiv from West will be conducted by army groups in Tomarovak. See for details below.

Shebkino army group.

Considering East of Harkiv lays Donets River the main spearhead force will move onto Harkiv trying to push it into pincers from East. Also, considering from occupied territories of Donetks and Luhansk Russian army battle groups are at the battle station the need is to push from Shebkono towards the other side of Donets River to support the spearhead forces that want to break out from Crimea with the help of beach landing ships that try to take Mariupol and other important cities around the Azov Sea. It’s unknown in which quantities Russian army have amassed battle groups in Shebkino vicinity but they are definitely going out in two directions. Harkiv is important industrial city which has the only capable main battle tank and armoured vehicle production capacity that kept the whole Soviet army machinery running. Due to that alone Harkiv is strategically very important city. The fact it’s close to the border with Russia makes it difficult to defend.

Belgorod region

Belgorod region and Russian army Command and Control unit. The question remains will Ukraine army destroy the C&C unit when its location has been established as making it out of order will give Ukraine army the upper hand in catching Russian army units. There are plenty of Command & Control units and those are necessary to link up comms over vast stretch of land as everything on nowadays battlefield is digital and some commands are given by army commanders over the radio or digital connections.

Belgorod region C&C is clearly aiming command the Russian army forces that move out on Kharkiv.

 

Tomarovka – Kozinka

Kozinka or the destination for Russian army MBTs in Tomarovka

Russian army battle group in Tomarovka with the footage of myriad main battle tank battalion are explicitly meant for takin Kharkiv with pincer movement from Western direction. It’s highly unlikely that the army groups that gathered at Koznika will move on Kyiv. As of writing this article it has emerged new army battle units have arrived to the settlement and their goal is clearly to take Kharkiv, provide territorial security for the rear. Kyiv is on low priority.

Valuyki combat helicopters base

For combat helicopter a 28 km distance from Ukraine border is nothing. In essence the combat helicopter seen in the video indicates there is battle army squadron that is either for supporting from the air Eastern flank moving on Kharkiv or the whole land bridge from the border to occupied Luhansk. Combat helicopter functions might be territorial and they cover quite significant distances and keep an eye on vast areas.

Belgorod battle armies

The disturbing news of uncountable amount of Russian army heavy equipment in Belgorod indicated this is the main spearhead force that will march on Harkiv and rely on Shebikino army group attacking from East and Kozinka army group take Harkiv from West pushing the city into pincer movement and surrounding it by closing the cauldron around it.

Conclusion

In conclusion we can confirm on higher level the British MoD assessment of Russian army goals and army groups moving on Ukraine cities is correct and the Russian army have moved into the striking positions on those directions. There might be discussion why British MoD didn’t mark the pincer movement on Kharkiv but that’s another story. We can confirm that this threat is real and Russia will use it at once. Thus, we can say with certainty the British Ministry of Defence has good capabilities and ability to see the Russian intention and think like adversary.

As this is quite disturbing article in terms of seeing what forces have been amassed against Ukraine army, we won’t dwell into discussion whether or not will or do British and American army intelligence share the information with Ukraine army. This is thing should not be discussed here as the goals is to understand what the enemy intents and thus, make the correct conclusions.

OSINT is and will be quite significant tool for intelligence, including army intelligence.SA VALDEF hopes grow in capacity where we could provide again the real intel to Ukraine army and help win this war.

 

Post Scriptum

The developments by Russian army and their deployment into occupied territories of DNR / LNR for full occupation of Ukraine and the imminent offensive is going according to the mindset of a typical soviet minded person. During the whole Soviet occupation Estonians felt the same attitude and mindset towards Estonia, Estonians, its history, and cultural heritage.

On Feb 21, 2022 surfaced the reality where signing recognition of DNR / LNR took place before the recording on National Security Council took place, where the whole show was most likely the litmus test for the Putin’s inner circle that they will pledge allegiance to him and not the Council advising the president.

Everything that is happening with and in Ukraine is because Putin wants it, he has means and he has secured all the moves to be legally whitewashed post-factum. The same post-factum whitewashing is Russian Federation Council after hour session on motion to allow president of Russia to use Russian army outside Russian Federation territory. That approval is legal whitewashing of status quo. The very moment Putin’s rant on “Ukraine is not a state” broadcast took place Russian army battle groups entered occupied Donetks / Luhansk.

By 4:00 Feb 22, 2022 Russian army deployed 24 tactical army groups to DNR / LNR settling into the contact line and most obviously have taken battle stations.

10 hours later, by 14:00 the Kremlin appointed, fully subordinated and dependent on Kremlin in every imaginable way head of DNR suddenly appears on Russian state TV, having staged refugee camp dents in the background, and talks about DNR / LNR constitutions stipulate the borders of DNR / LNR are along the administrative borders of region. This was the very detail people pointed out when recognition of the terrorist states suddenly emerged that such legal clause gives the leverage to strike on Ukraine w/o triggering the West. Suddenly, in unison, that topic becomes the leading problem and all the Russian army hybrid warfare smooth operation continues, considering the fact the only country that believes in it because it produces and knows that, is Russia. The whole state media is a branch of Russian army hybrid warfare.

24h after Russian army tactical battle groups took battle station at DNR / LNR contact line Russian Federation Council legally whitewashes the right to use Russian army abroad despite the fact they are there and Putin does not need approval. The fact there will be war on 22.02.2022 has been indicated by Russian Ministry of Foreign affairs on Feb 19 when they changed their Twitter profile picture. This is in-line with how Soviet mindset works. This is in-line how Russian mindset works. This in-line how Soviet Union, now Russia, have always functioned. This is the reality Western politicians are refusing to understand.

On Feb 22, 2022 late night Russian army will commence with attack on Ukraine. The war of 22.02.2022 has begun and it rolls out of everyone eyes, slowly but steadily. The formalities Putin needs to whitewash into legal realm are just post-factum fabrication of documents.

Russian landing ships from Crimea have to be already loaded, on positions in the Black Sea and awaiting. It has to begin before midnight.

Land assault and the bigger picture.

We made map where we show all analysed by us army units locate and which direction they will move out. It clearly emerges Kharkiv will be attempted to be taken with pincer movement.

Kursk army and its capability

The Russian army Kursk army group is solely intended for takin Kyiv. They have all the preparation made, including bridge sections to cross the river Supyi which right before Kyiv. The army units spotted on Feb 15, 2022 have command & control, mine cleansing machine with high explosives, engineering machine and equipment with the temporary bridge sections. It seems either the Russian army assumes the road over Supyi River will be impossible or they intend to hit with long range missiles the bridge by takin from Ukraine army ability to supply their units East from Kyiv allowing less resistance and quicker spearheading towards Kyiv. Also emerged which tactical markings Russian army is using, plus Crimean units with their diagonal line as designator.

 

 

 

 

 

Tags:
Related news
Russia’s 8-year war of genocide: Mariupol the victim of Soviet genocide practice.

Russia’s 8-year war of genocide: Mariupol the victim of Soviet genocide practice.

Russia’s 8-year war of genocide – Feb 28 / March 1, 2022 Harkiv bombing.

Russia’s 8-year war of genocide – Feb 28 / March 1, 2022 Harkiv bombing.

Vovchansk – The yet undiscovered Bucha with the massacre.

Vovchansk – The yet undiscovered Bucha with the massacre.

Comments: 0

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with *